Issue #2

November 20, 2025

Introduction to COP

What is COP30?

COP30, the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties, will be held in 2025 in Belém, Brazil, marking a pivotal moment in global climate governance. As part of the UNFCCC process, COP30 will convene world leaders, scientists, investors, and civil society to negotiate and accelerate collective action on climate change. This summit carries particular significance because it is the first COP where countries must submit their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035, meaning nations are expected to strengthen their emissions-reduction commitments and align policies more closely with the 1.5°C pathway.

Set against the backdrop of the Amazon rainforest, COP30 will emphasise not only the urgency of decarbonisation but also the protection of biodiversity, climate justice, and the financing needed to support a fair and effective transition worldwide. It represents a critical opportunity for the global community to correct course and close the gap between current climate pledges and the action required to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

1. The New Climate Finance Goal (NCQG): Scaling Private Capital

Goal Structure

Scale up climate finance from all public and private sources to at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 for developing countries.

A subset goal for developed countries to "take the lead" in mobilizing at least $300 billion per year by 2035.

  • A significant step up from the previous $100 billion annual goal.
  • However, expert assessments estimate the actual need for developing economies is much higher, between $3.1-3.5 trillion per year.
  • This gap highlights the necessity of private sector mobilization.
  • Goal also includes at least tripling annual outflows from UNFCCC funds (like the Green Climate Fund) to at least $5.2 billion by 2030.

How does this align with positive investment?

Mobilising Trillions: The sheer scale of the $1.3 trillion goal, and the gap identified by experts, aligns perfectly with positive investment's mission to redirect global capital and move "beyond incremental commitments".

Accountability: Positive investment advocates can use these new goals (NCQG and GGA) as benchmarks to hold institutions accountable and influence capital allocation.

Addressing Criticisms: The NCQG faces criticism for "weak accountability" and "poor fund accounting". Positive investment frameworks, which champion transparency, can be positioned as a solution to help track and verify the effectiveness and alignment of these capital flows.

2. The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA): Unlocking Private Finance for Resilience

The Finance Gap

There is a massive finance gap where adaptation costs are estimated to be 10-18x greater than current international public adaptation finance flows.

Public finance commitments for adaptation also fell by 15% in 2021, and disbursement rates are poor (only 66% from 2017-21).

Addressing Criticisms: The NCQG faces criticism for "weak accountability" and "poor fund accounting". Positive investment frameworks, which champion transparency, can be positioned as a solution to help track and verify the effectiveness and alignment of these capital flows.

How does this align with positive investment?

Leveraging Private Sector Finance: Due to the public finance gap, a "key component" of the COP30 adaptation agenda is "agreeing on ways to use private sector investment". This is a direct call to action for the positive investment community.

Identifying Investable Sectors: The GGA targets effectively create a "menu" of investable themes for positive investment, which includes:

Resilient infrastructure and human settlements

Climate-resilient health services

Climate-resilient water supply and sanitation

Ecosystem-based adaptation and nature-based solutions

Climate-resilient food and agricultural production

3. Key Mechanisms for Investment: The "How-To"

Making it Happen

Country Platforms: A tool for developing countries to "articulate exactly what they need over the next 5-10 years" and match those needs with finance

Alignment with Positive Investment: This directly supports the positive investment priority of "Stronger National Climate Plans". For investors, these platforms provide a "clearer national plan" which "makes it more likely that they will recover their investment" , thereby reducing risk and creating credible project pipelines.

Fair and Inclusive Transitions: A COP30 focus on utilizing Just Transition Frameworks alongside Country Platforms.

Alignment with Positive Investment: Positive investment "emphasises equity and inclusion in climate finance". This framework ensures investments benefit "communities and workers, not just capital providers," which is a core principle of a just transition.

Integrity in Carbon Markets (Article 6.4): A negotiation priority to shape the rules for new global carbon markets.

Alignment with Positive Investment: Positive investment can "champion integrity" in these markets, ensuring credits represent "real, additional emission reductions". This is "critical for investor confidence" and making carbon credits a viable asset for climate-positive portfolios.

Innovation in Financial Instruments: Initiatives like The Global Innovation Lab for Climate Finance design and test financial instruments to reduce risk and attract investors.

Alignment with Positive Investment: This is the practical application of positive investment. The document gives two concrete examples:

  1. RCF (by BV Rio): Uses asset-backed securities linked to deforestation-free supply chains.
  2. Green Receivables Fund: Finances renewable energy projects, which are "later refinanced by institutional investors" once operational and de-risked. This demonstrates a clear pathway for mainstream capital.

Key Insights from previous COP Atendees

We had the unique opportunity to hear directly from fellow Imperial College students who attended COP, witnessing first-hand the intensity, complexity, and hope that define these historic meetings.​ Their experiences offer a behind-the-scenes look at how COPs are structured, how the negotiations actually unfold, and why sustainable finance has become an essential driver of climate ambition.

  • Motivation and Roles: Johann attended COP26–COP30, motivated by representing youth voices and advancing intergenerational justice. Participation involved direct engagement in negotiations (through YOUNGO), tracking climate finance negotiations, and driving youth inclusion.
  • Evolution of Progress: Johann tracked major milestones from the naming of coal at COP26, the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund at COP27, and the agreement to transition away from fossil fuels at COP28. Recent COPs have completed negotiation tracks under the Paris Agreement, and the focus is now on implementation, notably mobilising $300 billion/year in climate finance by 2035.
  • Sustainable Finance Outlook: COP exposure clarified both hope and frustration: real progress is visible in the determination of people and organisations, but the gap between investment needs and pledges remains enormous. The growing presence of lobbyists complicates progress, and transparency issues stymie action.
  • Rethinking Impact and Financial Returns: COP shifted the perspective from purely environmental gains to broader “just transition” concerns, ensuring fair retraining, economic diversification, and social equity in shifting away from fossil fuels. Adaptation and resilience investments, although not always high-return, are now seen as critical de-risking steps enabling all future development. Long-term value means aligning profitable investment with societal and ecological stability.
  • Innovative Finance Models: Blended finance was a standout trend—using public/philanthropic capital to de-risk private investment in renewables and adaptation, especially for emerging markets. Debt-for-nature swaps, which trade debt relief for environmental action, also presented powerful new tools for climate and biodiversity finance.
  • Personal Takeaway: Above all, COP reinforced the sense that the climate crisis is a shared challenge with a remarkable network of active, committed problem-solvers worldwide.

COP28 Dubai and the Changing Face of Global Climate Talks

  • Sheer Scale and Energy: Olly attended COP28 in Dubai, and he described the event as enormous, with a record-breaking surge in private sector involvement. The Green Zone, dedicated to exhibitions and business showcases—was bigger and busier than previous years. Meanwhile, the Blue Zone, where official negotiations took place, felt more exclusive and politically charged, with restricted access and diplomatic tension. The atmosphere was likened to a “circus,” mixing hope and skepticism, especially as climate goals were debated in a city symbolic of global fossil fuel interests.
  • COP Structure and Demands: Participating involved intense days: Olly estimates 20% of his time went to core work for negotiators, up to 40% in strategic sessions, and the rest in networking or informal gatherings. With two weeks of near non-stop activity, delegates were often drained before the summit even began, due to months of preparation and the relentless pace on the ground.
  • Political and Social Dynamics: Collaboration is getting tougher. Olly discussed that the current COPs are shaped by US–China tensions, wider conflicts, and deep mistrust between public/private sectors and developed/developing nations. Petro-states are strategically using UN politics to slow progress. The analogy: if countries saw climate change as a war, spending and action would match - current efforts fall short, leaving developing nations underfunded.
  • Finance Realities: The gap between adaptation needs (~$300bn annually) and actual funding (~$30bn) remains vast. Without investment, vulnerable countries face severe consequences, including migration and instability.
  • Emerging Trends and Big Picture: Adaptation and resilience finance has moved to the mainstream, as mitigation alone can’t address escalating risks. Other trends included a focus on carbon capture, the health impacts of climate change, the blue economy, and persistent controversies over the integrity of carbon credits. Many participants acknowledged that keeping warming under 1.5°C may no longer be feasible, with fossil fuel interests continuing to impede progress. Olly observed that much of the climate community is now pivoting toward damage control and resilience.